Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 10.925417 12.521575 14.242194 16.231453 18.464387 20.889865 23.720251
2025-07-06 8.032627 10.070932 12.443156 15.394607 18.953832 23.092266 28.252159
2025-07-13 7.037297 9.336659 12.143920 15.798114 20.400758 25.974893 33.202186
2025-07-20 6.219999 8.685476 11.827788 16.085801 21.658240 28.650606 38.028279
2025-07-27 5.472040 7.997531 11.341315 16.035008 22.385573 30.601947 41.944480
2025-08-03 4.811728 7.339597 10.807529 15.836858 22.852492 32.185641 45.411109
2025-08-10 4.329440 6.868748 10.467432 15.843242 23.551399 34.064628 49.312869
2025-08-17 3.962837 6.521773 10.259238 15.996736 24.433199 36.203461 53.637694
2025-08-24 3.597511 6.135138 9.951105 15.964658 25.022085 37.933399 57.441401
2025-08-31 3.253760 5.744805 9.598152 15.825948 25.424494 39.390401 60.892975
2025-09-07 3.005606 5.481650 9.413952 15.919664 26.161177 41.344703 65.126652
2025-09-14 2.861889 5.376141 9.465660 16.375727 27.462622 44.177245 70.760338
2025-09-21 2.597508 5.044595 9.132892 16.205281 27.794426 45.592436 74.377954
2025-09-28 2.249151 4.530487 8.454979 15.419551 27.094728 45.384565 75.501527
2025-10-05 2.140227 4.437752 8.482430 15.805624 28.302142 48.183286 81.378960
2025-10-12 2.025651 4.322682 8.459905 16.099883 29.365922 50.791634 87.053182
2025-10-19 1.869486 4.111968 8.248786 16.046783 29.834115 52.451201 91.265917
2025-10-26 1.708258 3.874708 7.969302 15.849294 30.036276 53.673550 94.805081
2025-11-02 1.588871 3.709722 7.810191 15.855403 30.585386 55.482524 99.362942
2025-11-09 1.497831 3.594318 7.735436 16.009101 31.397291 57.757359 104.770112
2025-11-16 1.392726 3.438266 7.568990 15.976966 31.868187 59.463512 109.275312
2025-11-23 1.285121 3.265578 7.355453 15.838173 32.131559 60.814015 113.214056
2025-11-30 1.210372 3.158671 7.265793 15.931949 32.824262 62.931744 118.536738